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8/13/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 22bp this morning. The message released yesterday after the FOMC meeting is exactly what we said it would be. MBS spiked immediately after the release and have since had a 80bp rally. Jobless claims and retail sales continued to be a problem this morning. The equity markets were set for a huge rally as they were up pre-market, and swung to a loss at the open. This is why we continue to caution about the recovery.

The FOMC sait...

All Eyes on FOMC
8/12/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are -16bp. The FOMC end their 2 day meeting today. The press release regarding the language will be released at 1:15. The Fed is expected to keep the Fed Funds rate at .25% which is no suprise. The language is going to move the market.

The FOMC in its June statement that they stand ready to deploy “all available tools” to promote a recovery. What has changed since that meeting. The economy will grow at an annual rate of about...

And, They're Off
8/11/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 38bp this morning and plus 81bp since yesterday's opening. The productivity report showed that employees are being more productive. This shows inflation is in check and is MBS friendly. The FOMC starts their 2 day meeting today. The results of the meeting will be released Wednesday at 1:15. We start three days of auctions with a 37 billion dollar 3 year auction at 12:00 today.

High impact economic news will be released...

A Full Week
8/10/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 22bp this morning. Nothing is on the calender today and all the indicies look to be taking a breather. The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss its policies moving forward. Inflation will certainly be a topic of discussion. We will also see more auctions Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Results of those auctions will ceratinly factor into rates this week. The 10 year Treasury yield was close to its high for the year again on Friday....

Top of the range
8/5/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are -3bp this morning. MBS were down as much as 50bp this morning. Bond auctions were announced today and not on Thursday like I wrote yesterday. That has put the markets in foul mood. I was correct in that regard. The markets do not like the mounting debt and the eminent inflation.

I keep hearing about the jobs numbers that will be released Friday. Those numbers are going to be the catalyst. Many traders believe that stock...