http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/ Wisconsin, Free Classifieds, Events, Music, Wisconsin Chat, Forums, Business, Weather, Sports, News, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan, Bubbler, theBubbler en Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:58:26 GMT vBulletin 1 http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/images/misc/rss.jpg http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/ http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2256-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-unchanged.html Mon, 22 Aug 2011 15:44:36 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are MINUS 38bps this morning. The... Mortgage Backed Securities are MINUS 38bps this morning.

The biggest news out today was my lender's underwriting is taking 6 days. That means that there is no need for them to go out and try to buy the markets. They will keep rates favorable and keep margins up.

The equity markets rallied as investors thought 4 weeks of selling was enough. The Dow was up as many as 200 points today. The Dow is currently up 69 points as I write this article. That brings us to the word of the week, volatility. There is no real news out this week and plenty of speculation.

The Fed Chairman is gathering knowledge from other economists in Jackson Hole,WY over the next week. The economists are patting him on the back telling him how great QE2 was that he released at this very meeting last year. The problem is QE2 did nothing to spark the economy and it only caused the markets to rally and fall to their previous levels. That is why many analyst are saying nothing will come out of his speech on Friday that is not already been announced.

Next month the Eurozone has to vote on what is being compared to our TARP. There are big government bond rollovers across Europe starting in September. The Fed needs to keep some powder dry in case we get caught up in the Eurozone contagion.

The up markets and the heavy flow of new business to the lenders has rates unchanged today. Milwaukee Mortgage rates still remain low. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2256-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-unchanged.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2255-milwauke-mortgage-rates-move-higher-short-term.html Wed, 17 Aug 2011 15:30:19 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 6bps this morning. The... Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 6bps this morning.



The fear mongers have held the markets down for the last few weeks. Retailers Target and Staples say not so fast my friends. Target the 2nd largest retailer profits rose 3.7% and beat expectation. They also raised their year end guidance. Raised their guidance in the face of the largest recession we will see in our lifetime? Staples the number one office supplies chain also beat expectations. That means the consumer is spending but just not on the high end merchandise. That was evident by Ambercrombie lowering its year end outlook. The demise of the US economy may be overstated.

Tomorrow three very key numbers will be released. The first will be the Philly Fed Index. The index looks at manufacturing in the east region. The second will be Initial Jobless Claims. The last few readings have come in under 400,000. A better than expected number will rally equity markets. The last is the CPI number that tracks consumer inflation. We saw today that the Producer Price Index was higher. The CPI number will tell us if the producer inflation is being passed to the consumer.

The equity markets are looking for a reason to run higher. We started today with good retail numbers. If we see jobs and manufacturing pick up, the markets will rally and push interest rates higher. I am not saying that eventually the markets will not falter under global pressure. I am saying in the short term we could see rates move higher on a better than expected economic outlook.

Milwaukee Mortgage Rates remain unchanged today. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2255-milwauke-mortgage-rates-move-higher-short-term.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2253-milwaukee-fitness-trainer-questions-under-water-mortgages.html Fri, 22 Jul 2011 14:41:13 GMT I look in many places to find content and try to answer questions... I look in many places to find content and try to answer questions where people are looking for answers. I recently started working with a fitness trainer, Mike Sweeney of Sweeney's Gym on Howell Ave in Milwaukee. We started talking about what it is I do for a living. When I told him he said that his clients, the people in his business network and charitable organizations he helps are always talking about the state of the housing market. The fact that people are upside down on their mortgages is concerning. There are no easy answers.

The government has a program currently in place that if you have only one mortgage on your property that you can refinance even if you are upside down on your mortgage. The rates and underwriting are the same as if you were taking out a normal loan. If you had 20% equity in your home before the refinance, you will not have PMI after you refinance. That is a very easy process to complete.

Most people who are upside down have 2 mortgages on their property. That is a little more difficult. I do not have any lenders that will exceed 95% of the homes value when you try to refinance a first and second mortgage. Combining the 2 mortgages would be considered a cash out transaction and be limited to 85% of the homes value. The best way is to reduce the balance on the second and just refinance the first mortgage at these great rates. It is not the optimal solution but it will save you money. I was recently quoted in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and another contributor said that going to the Bank of Mom and Dad maybe the answer. Again this is not optimal but it is a solution.

Lenders have stopped being creative when it comes to solving the problems with the housing market. It will be up to the home owners to pinch their noses and swallow that awful medicine. I wish I had better news or answers but these are the current Milwaukee Mortgage conditions.

My body is the epitome of having it way to good for way to long. Thanks to Mike Sweeney I will be feeling the burn and getting my fitness house in order. Mike tells me to be balanced in my approach. That is the way everyone should attack their financial situation. Start out slow and get a handle on the problem. Get on a financial diet and bring down that bloated mortgage. It can be done but it will take commitment. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2253-milwaukee-fitness-trainer-questions-under-water-mortgages.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2250-potential-financing-problems-milwaukee.html Wed, 20 Jul 2011 17:00:04 GMT I have seen my share of issues over the last 11 years with the... I have seen my share of issues over the last 11 years with the appraisal process. Recently we are seeing an abnormal amount of fallout from needed repairs on a property. Lenders will not refinance or extend money for the purchase of a property that needs work.

Currently 25% of all homeowners are under water on their mortgages. That number could increase as housing values are expected to slip another 5 to 10 percent this year. That means the lenders are underwriting the home as much as they are the borrower. When refinancing you should make sure any curled shingles, loose mortar, peeling paint or exposed wood should be repaired BEFORE the appraiser comes to the property.

When the appraiser comes out to the property and states there are potential problems, it puts the lender at high alert. They are now looking for any additional problems with the appraisal. What could have been a simple fix is now a complex issue. The underwriter will request experts to come out and inspect the property to make sure there is not a larger issue. Then they will make the same inspector come out and write a letter that says the work was completed. Something that could have been fixed before the appraiser showed up is now going to cost you the cost of the inspector and a rate lock in most cases.

Here are problems that can be avoided. I had a client and it had rained hard the night before and the sump pump crock flowed over the top. The appraiser came the next day to a wet basement. The lender wanted a basement specialist to check for foundation issues. The borrower should have canceled the appraisal and dried the basement floor. The was no foundation issue but rather the borrower should adjust the landscape around the home. This will put less pressure on the sump system.

You should always present the property in its best condition. This will allow you to avoid any delays and added expense. If you are refinancing to fix the problems let your loan officer know up front. Explain the magnitude of the problem so they can determine if the lender will have a problem with the financing. There is no perfect solution but at least this may alleviate potential problems.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/resources ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2250-potential-financing-problems-milwaukee.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2248-equity-markets-soar-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-pause.html Tue, 19 Jul 2011 15:45:49 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 22bps this morning. The... Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 22bps this morning.

The headlines are stating that the equity markets are soaring based on a Housing Starts report that states a 14.6% increase. Single Family homes in that report were actual flat and the big increase was in Multifamily units. More Americans can not afford to buy and are renting should be the headline. The economy and government has made more renters than homeowners.

In an article at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hou...MW_latest_news the writer takes issue with the report and its contents. I have included the quote.

"In most months, the government can’t be sure whether starts increased or decreased — in June, the standard error for starts was plus or minus 10.9% — and large revisions are common."

I thought stock brokers did research before they jump in with the herd. Single family starts are flat with a plus or minus of 10%. They could have decreased for all the brokers know. It is common for large revisions later. Equity markets are looking for any reason to move higher. This will bring volatility back to the market. We were down 100 points on the Dow yesterday and up 100 today.

Milwaukee mortgage rates are flat today. With the volatility in the markets it would make sense to lock on the dips.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2248-equity-markets-soar-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-pause.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2247-100-purchase-wisconsin.html Mon, 18 Jul 2011 17:34:33 GMT I recently had two clients call me looking for 100 percent purchase... I recently had two clients call me looking for 100 percent purchase loans. I work so much in the Milwaukee, Waukesha and Madison area that I forget about a little used Rural housing 100 percent loan program. You can qualify under this program with very little out of pocket expenses. There are some guidelines that differ from regular financing but they are manageable.

These loans are trying to help people with average income and average credit scores obtain financing. That is not to say if you have perfect credit you can not apply. It does allow for scores as low as 640. The area where most people have trouble qualifying is too high of an income. The program allows for 115% of the median income for the county. Most counties in the State of Wisconsin are between $74,000 and $83,000 for median income. You have to include all income for the entire household.

Location is the other area where this loan program fails. Most cities with a population over 10,000 people will not qualify. There are some exception to the rule and that is why you should call and check the address of the home you would like to purchase. Larger cities that qualify are Hartford, Slinger, Hartland, Delafield, Burlington, Waterford, Muskego, Mukwonago and Sussex. These are just a few cities close to larger populated areas that you may recognize. The most important thing is to call and we can enter the address and verify the home qualifies for this program.

There is NO PMI on this loan. There is a funding fee of 3% that is financed on top of the purchase price. That means if you have a purchase price of $100,000 you would have a loan amount of $103,000. The difference between the payment of these two loans at 6% interest is $18 per month. The PMI for that same loan would be $95.83 per month. You can see the additional $3000 on top of the purchase price keeps your monthly payment lower.

The underwriter will be looking very close at you as the borrower. They will be looking just as hard at the appraisal. They want to limit any potential future risk in case the property is foreclosed. That means buying a house that needs work to be performed may not fit this program. A house with a high sales price compared to other properties in the area may not work.

I am here to tell you 100 percent financing in Wisconsin is alive and well. Give us a call when you want to make that Wisconsin home purchase and we will get you and most importantly the house approved.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2247-100-purchase-wisconsin.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2246-buying-condo-wisconsin.html Wed, 13 Jul 2011 16:04:16 GMT A recent check of my web traffic alerted me to a rash of inquiries... A recent check of my web traffic alerted me to a rash of inquiries regarding the purchase of a condo in Wisconsin. Like any part of the housing market right now there are deals to be had in the condo market. There are plenty of potential pit falls and hopefully this will help you navigate the mine field.

The recent foreclosure market has turned investors sour on the condo market. You can still get financing at 80% of the condo's value. You will have to pay a premium of .75 points for the loan to value to 80% or take a .25% hit to the rate. That means on a $100,000 loan you will pay an additional $750 in closing costs. The alternative would be if you see 4.5% is the current rate for a 30 year fixed rate you could take 4.75% for your rate and avoid the fees. The other option and what the lenders seem to be pushing is putting down 25% on the property and avoiding the higher fees and the higher rate. That is what most condo buyers are choosing as their best option.

We figured out that the best option is 25% down and now we are ready for closing. No, now we have to talk about the condo association. With all the foreclosures in all areas of the housing market condos were hit just as hard. That means that some condo association dues were going unpaid and the health of the association could be in jeopardy. That means the lender is underwriting the condo project as much as they are you the borrower.

The most important item lenders will be looking at is the amount of units that are vacant or unsold as a percentage of the total number of units. Lenders will differ in the requirements but I would be confident if the project is 90% sold and occupied your financing will be approved. That does not mean that you can not get financing below 90% but it becomes more difficult and in some cases more costly.

The other area the lenders pay particular close attention to are rental units. Some condo projects do not restrict the amount of rental properties in the project. Lets face the fact that renters do not take care of properties as well as home owners. A project full of renters could bring down the value of a complex in a hurry. Most complexes have restrictions on the number of rental units for this very reason.

If your intention is to buy a condo it is very important to let your mortgage professional know this during the pre-approval process. You may want the condo association to fill out a condo questionnaire before you write an offer to make sure the condo qualifies for financing. Condos are a little more difficult to finance but not impossible. Call or email today with any questions.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2246-buying-condo-wisconsin.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2245-fed-chairman-ben-bernanke-testifies-milwaukee-mortgage-rate-move-higher.html Wed, 13 Jul 2011 15:01:57 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bps this morning. Chairman... Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bps this morning.

Chairman Bernanke stated in his semi-annual testimony that the Fed is ready to step in and try untested measures to stimulate the economy if it falters. That signaled to investors that another round of quantitative easing maybe in the cards. Just two weeks after the Fed stopped QE2 there is more talk of easing. This has investors cheering and running for the exits in the bond markets and rushing into equities.

China announced GDP grew at 9.5% in the second quarter and that was slightly above expectations. That is good news for investors that one economy is not suffering and can purchase our goods and services. That will also allow China to purchase more of our debt. With two more auctions looming this week.

Fitch announced that an Italy austerity measure could stabilize the countries rating. That may put an end to Eurozone debt crisis talk for the rest of this week.

There is no other economic news being released today. We will see the results of today's auction at 1:00. The stock markets will be left to digest the Chairman's remarks and move the markets accordingly.

Milwaukee Mortgage Rates appear to headed up in the near future.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2245-fed-chairman-ben-bernanke-testifies-milwaukee-mortgage-rate-move-higher.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2244-fomc-focus-will-move-milwaukee-rates.html Tue, 12 Jul 2011 14:29:14 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 0 this morning. The FOMC will... Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 0 this morning.

The FOMC will release the minutes from its last meeting today at 1:00. It will give us a look at the discussions of the last meeting. It will tell us what the Fed thinks about the economy and inflation. The may even mention the affects of the Fed not buying Treasuries as today we have the first auction since the end of QE2. That auction will be at noon today. The markets will be moved on these auctions.

"Longer-maturity Treasury prices were supported by the turmoil in the European sovereign-debt crisis as fears that Italy will be dragged into the problems attracted investors to less-risky assets such as bonds". This is from a Marketwatch.com article. The article confirms that the recent move into bonds is based on the Euro zone again. That will help today's auctions as investors flock to safety.

We have been writing that the natural direction of rates is higher. It seems every time we are ready to move rates up there is another debt crisis. This has been really good for the Milwaukee Mortgage Rates. The problem is it is not good for confidence and the economy.

We should see in the coming weeks that the debt ceiling will be lifted. That will be another boost to the markets. We believe that rates will be trending up. Take advantage of the low mortgage rates while there is still an opportunity.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mortgage-rate-commentary ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2244-fomc-focus-will-move-milwaukee-rates.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2243-what-difference-between-recession-depression.html Mon, 11 Jul 2011 15:27:12 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 34bps this morning. A... Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 34bps this morning.



A comedian once quipped the difference between a recession and a depression. He said "A recession is when your neighbor is out of work and a depression is when you are out of work". I think that may be the case with the latest jobs report.

We are seeing better than expected manufacturing numbers being released. We saw an increase in private sector jobs. We are seeing slow growth and a little consumer confidence. That means the economy is recovering. Why the lackluster jobs report?

Employers are faced with more orders and a recent bleak economic forecast. They are using the machines they have and the people they have in place. They are not looking to hire and pay added health care cost and employment tax if they can use the people in place. I talked to a couple of gentlemen recently that told me they were getting plenty of work and overtime was available. One of the men I talked with was in manufacturing and the other was in shipping.



The uncertainty in the tax cuts, health care costs, energy prices and the Dodd Frank bill have employers very concerned. That makes me not so worried about the economy as it does our Government. I watched CNBC this morning and watched to politicians yell at each other over the same things that put us in this mess. The sides do not want to make concessions to get the debt ceiling worked out. Political posturing is all they were accomplishing.

We as a country have to look at what is going on in Europe currently and decide if we want to look like them in the near future. The only way we get back on track will be by making cuts, compromises and tough decisions. That will bring confidence back into the economy and put us on the right path.

The good news is Milwaukee Mortgage Rates are slightly better today. We have three bond auctions this week that could turn that momentum on a dime.

www.mortgageserrviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2243-what-difference-between-recession-depression.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2242-analysts-whiffed-rates-retreat.html Fri, 08 Jul 2011 15:10:39 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 65bps this morning. The guy... Mortgage Backed Securities are PLUS 65bps this morning.

The guy sitting on the bench never strikes out. The only problem is he is never in the game to begin with. That means if you are in the game long enough you will strike out every once in awhile. It is not because you did not do the research or did not see the market trends. With the best intentions you are sometimes on the wrong side. I was on the wrong side yesterday.

I wrote yesterday to lock the rate in front of a big jobs number. The markets rallied in the afternoon and were poised to rally again this morning. Then the job numbers were horrific. Analysts predicted 120,000 jobs would be created in June. The actual number was 18,000 jobs. The goes against the four manufacturing reports that said orders had increased. There were actually 57,000 private sector jobs created last month. The government laid off 39,000 employees to help balance their budgets.

What investors will have to digest is if we are in a soft patch or quicksand. Private sector job growth is what we need to create and sustain growth. We just need to stabilize the housing sector and keep the private sector busy to grow the economy. No one said it would be easy and it is time for Washington to get it figured out.

Milwaukee Mortgage Rates retreat on job reports and the rate direction is lower today.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2242-analysts-whiffed-rates-retreat.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2241-markets-pull-head-fake-milwaukee-mortgage-rates.html Thu, 07 Jul 2011 15:51:03 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 28bps today. Milwaukee... Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 28bps today.

Milwaukee mortgage rates started to move up last week. We questioned why they would be pulling back other then just getting ahead of themselves. Today they restarted their ascent. This after weekly jobless claims came in lower by 14,000. ADP also said there were 157,000 new jobs created ahead of the 60,000 anticipated. That gives markets reason to believe tomorrow's job reports will be favorable. Equity markets are cheering and moving higher today.

The Treasury said this morning that it will auction $66 billion in debt next week. This is a surprise move and brilliant. The Fed had been buying a large supply of the debt offered. When you have lost so much demand you must reduce the supply. This may help keep the prices up and help smooth over the transition to no Fed purchases. The last three auctions were met with tepid interest. This gives the Fed and Treasury hope these auctions will perform better.

I know you may have missed the 4.5% yesterday and you feel like Charlie Brown having the football moved again. You still have the chance to get a great rate before tomorrow's game changing jobs report.

Milwaukee Mortgage Rates are moving HIGHER and we are advising all of our clients to lock.


www.mortgageserviceswi.com/rates ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2241-markets-pull-head-fake-milwaukee-mortgage-rates.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2240-wisconsin-mortgage-rates-recover.html Wed, 06 Jul 2011 16:15:39 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 6 this morning. Lenders came... Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 6 this morning.

Lenders came out very aggressive in their pricing today. The short week and low volumes may have prevented them from producing the best rates available. Today they are very aggressive in the face of head winds. We will have to see if they keep their sentiment the rest of the trading day. We are already off the best levels of the day and sliding.

The Institute for Supply Management released their current reading. Most analyst predicted a number of 54 and the markets were disappointed in the 53.3 reading. A reading over 50 signals expansion and that further supports the last 3 economic reports that showed we were in a soft patch.

The equity markets stumbled out of the gate this morning. Investors did not know how much weight to put on the current readings. It appears investors have found their direction as they are taking the equity markets higher.

I said yesterday that mortgage rates never move in a straight line. This could be a small dip and an opportunity to lock. Remember that Friday we will see a very important set of job reports.

Milwaukee Mortgage Rates are improved today.

http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mo...ate-commentary ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2240-wisconsin-mortgage-rates-recover.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2238-milwaukee-housing-market.html Tue, 05 Jul 2011 16:51:43 GMT One in four homeowners is underwater on their mortgage. That is... One in four homeowners is underwater on their mortgage. That is putting pressure on the real estate market. Homeowners that would typically look to upgrade during the recent historic rates are helpless and unable to sell their current homes. We talked in a previous blog about sellers needing to fix their home to make sure it met all different program guidelines. There is a new fear and that is the neighbor who fire sells their property.

A new disturbing trend is homeowners getting out while the getting is good. They will sell their home $20,000 below the current market value of similar homes in the area. Once they have someone interested in their property they will do anything to rid themselves of their property. I am not sure I can blame them.

Every week there are new reports being released that state the housing markets will depreciate again this year. A home that has a value of $200,000 will lose 5-10 percent if you believe the experts. That means the seller will lose ten to twenty thousand if they keep their home until the same time next year. A bird in the hand is the saying that comes to mind. What are the results of these actions?

I have clients currently in Madison that are refinancing their home. They refinanced last year and had an appraised value of $470,000 and now the home appraised for under $400,000. Did they lose 20% equity over the last 12 months? No, they did not lose that value. The only properties currently being sold are under pressure to sell. Most homeowners are waiting out the stabilization of the housing market. Those who can not wait must sell at greatly reduced prices to get buyers interested in their properties. The effect is properties owners being shocked at the appraised value of their home when they try to refinance. In some cases it is stopping them from refinancing.

Here is an article from JSonline that I was recently quoted in regards the Milwaukee Housing Market ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2238-milwaukee-housing-market.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2237-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-rise-again.html Thu, 30 Jun 2011 16:08:06 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 40bps this morning and puts the... Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 40bps this morning and puts the 3 day total above 100bps.

The Chicago PMI came in at 61.1 rising from the 56.6 reading last month and well above the 51 that analysts expected. Last month the same reading slipped and gave investors pause that the stimulus was not working. This reading tells investors that we were in a soft patch and the long term health of the economy may be just fine.

"The Greek parliament bore a gift to the financial markets Thursday, passing legislation that will implement further austerity measures and allow the country to get enough aid to avoid defaulting on its massive debts." This was taken directly from Marketwatch. This gives markets further reason to cheer. The fallout from a Greek default would have hit banks world wide. This reminds me of the childhood game where everyone hides and gets put in the can until someone can kick it and free everyone and start over hiding again. The days of our youth being played out on a world stage as a good old fashion game of "Kick the Can".

When it looked like Greece would default on their debt it took the 10 year Treasury yields to 2.83 and after the PMI report and the Greek vote it hit 3.21. A slow and steady growth forecast with no global worries will result in even higher rates.

Milwaukee mortgage rates are on the rise. It is time to lock at these historic lows.

http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mo...ate-commentary ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2237-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-rise-again.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2236-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-climb.html Wed, 29 Jun 2011 16:08:59 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 16bps this morning and are down... Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 16bps this morning and are down 47bps since yesterday afternoon.

Equity markets rallied yesterday afternoon and contiune the rally here again today. Last week we had investors pile into the bond markets like clowns into a small car at the circus. That took the 10 year Treasury yield to the 2.83. We are now at 3.08 on a 10 year Treasury. Most of that movement happening in the last 48 hours. This as Greece pushed to get austerity measures pushed through the parliament.

This morning the Greek parliament voted to approve the austerity measures as people rioted in the streets.This is a tale of a country that could not get its spending in line with its tax base. Does that sound familiar to anyone?

This will take investors out of the safe haven of bonds for the immediate future. That means Milwaukee Mortgage rates could continue to rise. We also have an acution this afternoon. The last two auctions were rated a C and D. Better equity markets and bad auctions spells higher mortgage rates. Remember this is the last auction where the Fed is to participate.
http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mo...ate-commentary ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2236-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-climb.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2235-credit-fixes-when-buying-milwaukee-home.html Wed, 29 Jun 2011 15:35:39 GMT We have created a few e-books lately that talk about the simple steps... We have created a few e-books lately that talk about the simple steps to home ownership in the Milwaukee Real Estate market. The fact of the matter is there are cavernous holes you can fall into if you do not stay on the path during the home purchase process. I created an e-book that talks about 15 possible mistakes. I would like to talk about paying on an old collection.

When you dive into the Milwaukee home purchase market it can be confusing on what should be done to improve your credit. I wrote a blog about "Painting Your Best Financial Picture Milwaukee". We talk about the importance of transaction of the last 12 months. People instinctively believe that if they pay off a collection from 2 years ago that it will improve their credit score. That is not necessarily the case.

A two year old collection is just that 2 years old. The models that the credit bureau's look at dismisses those items as old debt. In many cases the may have been paid and the creditor did not pay to have them removed from your credit history. If you pay this obligation or get it fixed on you credit it will show as a paid collection in the last 30 days. A collection in the 30 days prior to purchasing a home is the last thing you want.

When you sat down with your Milwaukee Mortgage Broker they pre-approved you for a mortgage. Now that you have an offer to purchase and the file is at underwriting they lender will ask you to provide proof it has been paid or it was resolved previously. This will clear up the matter in the lender's eyes and you will get home financing. This will all take place with in 30 days of closing and it takes 45 days to show on the credit bureau's.

Now that you have your brand new Milwaukee home. You can go back and get the matter cleared permanently from your credit history.

http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/blog ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2235-credit-fixes-when-buying-milwaukee-home.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2234-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-could-climb.html Tue, 28 Jun 2011 16:26:28 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 22bps this morning. The... Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 22bps this morning.

The results of yesterday's auction were fair at best, This started a slide in MBS yesterday afternoon. The slide continues today as equity markets are rising over optimism in Greece. Olli Rehn, the European Union’s commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, in a statement Tuesday said

The austerity and privatization measures “must be approved if the next tranche of financial assistance is to be released,” Rehn said. “To those who speculate about other options, let me say this clearly: there is no Plan B to avoid default.”

Greece is being told it has to pass the austerity measures because there is no other way they will get more bailout funds. That will put some confidence back in the equity markets. That means money will be taken out of the safe haven of bonds and back into stocks. That means Milwaukee mortgage rates will climb with confidence.
http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/mo...ate-commentary ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2234-milwaukee-mortgage-rates-could-climb.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2233-milwaukee-refinance-reverse-mortgage.html Mon, 27 Jun 2011 21:30:29 GMT I recently refinanced my in-laws from a 20 year mortgage to a 30 year... I recently refinanced my in-laws from a 20 year mortgage to a 30 year mortgage and did that create a stir. Most of the family told them they were getting older and they should refinance to a shorter mortgage term. With Milwaukee mortgage rates hitting close to record lows I suggested that they take a longer term loan. A 4.5% percent 30 year is no different then a 4.25% 15 year they would have received if they would have refinanced two years ago. The difference is working with a realistic budget. This is no different then a first time home buyer. You can always pay more when your budget allows. You can not call the bank and tell them I can not make my 15 year payment.

When clients start to get older many think they want to payoff their loan to leave more for the kids. That is coming from the heart and not from what is best for their wallets. You have people doing reverse mortgages after they pay off their homes to get some equity from their homes after retirement. A reverse mortgage can be at a much higher rate than current market conditions. Do not get me wrong if you can pay off the home early and have the resources to do so then by all means.

What happens if you pay off the mortgage and something happens to a spouse. That spouses income may have been the income needed to qualify for a mortgage. Now that the income is not there you may not qualify. Getting the mortgage now with both names allows for the transfer of the mortgage after the death of a spouse. There are no re-qualifications. This will make sure that the spouse would not have to sell the home. When you refinance Milwaukee, keep your best interests in mind. Talk with your financial adviser and see what is in your budget.

http://www.mortgageserviceswi.com/blog ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2233-milwaukee-refinance-reverse-mortgage.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2232-frankie-valli-coming-milwaukee-greece-still-word.html Mon, 27 Jun 2011 15:29:36 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 9 this morning. Frankie Valli... Mortgage Backed Securities are Minus 9 this morning.

Frankie Valli will be performing at Festa Italiana on Sunday July 24th. I would have to guess that part of the show will include "Grease is the Word". It seems that every week we are talking about this small country and its effects on the world stage. This week the Greek Parliament will vote on austerity measures. Here is a excerpt from Marketwatch.

“If the austerity package is passed by the Greek parliament, safe-haven flows will recede as investors celebrate by buying high-yielding currencies. This would drive the dollar sharply lower,” said Kathy Lien, director of currency research for GFT. “If the Greek parliament rejects the package, investors will become very nervous and we will most likely see a massive flight to quality into safe-haven currencies such as the U.S. dollar and Swiss franc.

That means this week you should polish up on the hit song by Frankie Valli. We will be singing this song all week. According to Marketwatch it will certainly move rates in one direction or the other. I can not image them letting Greece fail. That would mean money flowing out of the safe havens and into the markets. That will take Milwaukee interest rates higher. Here is a verse from Grease is the Word.

I solve my problems and I see the light
We gotta plug and think, we gotta feed it right
There ain't no danger we can go to far
We start believing now that we can be who we are

Grease is the word ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2232-frankie-valli-coming-milwaukee-greece-still-word.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2231-recovery-housing-not-so-fast-milwaukee.html Mon, 27 Jun 2011 14:20:41 GMT New home sales were up 11% from February to March. WOW the recovery... New home sales were up 11% from February to March. WOW the recovery is finally here. What the headline does not tell you is February had the worst reading of new home starts in a few years. The 11% only brings us back to the flat number we had in January and is down 21.9% from last March's reading.. Here is a CNBC article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/42749735 The author seems to share my sentiment. "Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to see the sales numbers going in the right direction; I just questioning whether "optimism" is the right word right now. I'm not even sure about "recovery."

The fact is that it will probably get even worse before it gets better. This article I found on Marketwatch.com says that federal funding for first time buyer education and foreclosure prevent may be cut. The 88 million program is part of the governments cuts to balance the budget. Here is the link: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fun...-ax-2011-04-25

Current homeowners find themselves underwater after losing most of their equity over the last few years. Low rates have allowed current homeowners to refinance to historic low rates. That leaves little motivation to upgrade or down grade their current situation. That leaves the all important first time home buyer to help stimulate the new and existing home sales market. What they need is to be educated how the process works and gain the confidence to purchase their first home. Cutting the 88 million from the current budget would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

This articles says that nationally we saw a 3.1% decline in home prices. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/out...ear-2011-04-13 The article also goes on to say that we could see another 10 to 15 percent decline this year nationally. I have seen some local predictions that show a 3 - 5 percent decline.

The housing market's demise has been greatly understated. Homebuyers lack the confidence, commitment and the means to change the course of the recovery. I think at this time we should not proclaim a recovery but rather state that we have stabilized the market. Recovery is going to be years away. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2231-recovery-housing-not-so-fast-milwaukee.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2230-6-24-weekend-starts-early-milwaukee.html Fri, 24 Jun 2011 21:31:26 GMT Mortgaged Backed Securities are Minus 3bps this morning. I waited... Mortgaged Backed Securities are Minus 3bps this morning.

I waited until this afternoon to write the commentary because there was nothing happening early in the bond markets. It is now noon Milwaukee time and MBS are basically flat. Volume seems to be decreasing as we get later in the day. Traders appear to be excited about the first official weekend of summer. Reports released today showed GDP was in line and durable goods orders were slightly higher than anticipated.

I wrote yesterday about the three bond auctions early next week. The auctions will give MBS direction next week. Oil prices continue to fall as the government released some of its oil reserves. The price for a barrel oil today is $90. That has pushed gas prices down to $3.49 per gallon at several Milwaukee are locations. This information was supplied by Milwaukee Gas Prices - Find Cheap Gas Prices in Wisconsin. Cheaper gas prices would result in higher profits for companies. That could push markets higher and take Milwaukee Mortgage Rates higher.

Have a Great Weekend.

:highfive: ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2230-6-24-weekend-starts-early-milwaukee.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2229-6-24-qe2-treasury-auctions-milwaukee-home-prices.html Fri, 24 Jun 2011 15:07:52 GMT Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 31bps this morning. Making today... Mortgage Backed Securities are Plus 31bps this morning. Making today a great day to lock your mortgage home loan.

The markets are reacting to the speech given by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He said the Fed will end QE2 on schedule June 30th. He also revised down the GDP forecast for next year and admitted to slow steady growth. This started to hit the markets yesterday afternoon. It spilled over to pre market trading this morning with Dow futures down almost 100 point before weekly jobless claims. Jobless claims were higher than the already revised up numbers and the stock market doubled down on its losses. The Dow was off as many 200 points in early trading. This article from Marketwatch sums up sentiment. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tre...ise-2011-06-23

The Treasury announced this morning that it will hold auctions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The total being auction will be $99 billion. That is the last auction the Fed will being bonds. The auctions skip a week and that means the first post QE2 bond auction will be the week of July 11th. Those are the auctions that will layout the future of the bond market. If you hold an auction post QE2 and the Fed is not buying does anyone show up?

Research provided by Trulia.com shows that listing prices for Milwaukee Homes declined in the first part of June. This number has since recovered and the current Milwaukee Home listing price is $161,000.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2229-6-24-qe2-treasury-auctions-milwaukee-home-prices.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2228-paint-your-best-financial-picture-milwaukee.html Fri, 24 Jun 2011 15:04:16 GMT In the current Milwaukee mortgage market it is imperative that you... In the current Milwaukee mortgage market it is imperative that you present yourself in the best possible light. Most first time home buyers do not look at their credit until they are ready to purchase. Are they ready or is it to late?

The one certain fix for credit is time. A credit report is front end loaded. What have you done to me lately? 12 months of perfect credit is solution for most dings on a credit report. When you are purchasing a home in two months you just do not have enough time to fix blemishes. Start researching your credit early.

The Milwaukee mortgage environment has changed to focus on credit scores and the amount of the down payment. You might say that has always been the case. The difference is the penalty for not having perfect credit. The difference between a 700 and a 740 score could be .25% to the rate. The difference in payment on $150,000 is $25 per month or $300 per year. It only gets worse as your credit scores decline.

How to check your scores and other valuable information is listed in out "5 Musts before you even start House Hunting" EBook. It gives you the list of credit reporting agencies that you would need to contact to correct any mistakes on your report. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2228-paint-your-best-financial-picture-milwaukee.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2134-plenty-noise-05-07.html Fri, 07 May 2010 16:15:37 GMT Plenty of Noise 5/07/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this... Plenty of Noise
5/07/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. Volatility is the word of the day. The markets were getting routed and have since come back to unchanged. The reasons are listed below. Nothing has changed in the last two days. This will be a ride to remember. These swings offer great opportunities to lock. We are advising our clients to lock.

Instability in foreign currency has caused the markets to plummet the last few trading sessions. Now there are riots in the streets of Athens. The economy is now a global economy. The US is dependent on the sales of our goods and services in all of Europe. The US economy has recovered based on the spread between the the Euro and the Dollar. You could buy US products for less based on the exchange rate. If the Euro keeps falling and is equal to the Dollar, European markets will buy from home. This would crush our recovery efforts in the States. This uncertainty will put volatility back in play. Just a few days ago this problem was said to be behind us. When this is resolved, look for rates to rise.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Friday we will see four jobs reports that could move the markets.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2134-plenty-noise-05-07.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2131-uncertainty-05-06.html Thu, 06 May 2010 15:42:55 GMT Uncertainty 5/06/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 19bp this... Uncertainty
5/06/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 19bp this morning. The stock markets are down again today. Instability in the European markets (see below) are continuing. With stabilization in the region comes higher rates. This was a nice opportunity to lock. It will not continue without another collapse of the markets. I will keep an eye on the markets and a finger on the lock button.

Instability in foreign currency has caused the markets to plummet the last few trading sessions. Now there are riots in the streets of Athens. The economy is now a global economy. The US is dependent on the sales of our goods and services in all of Europe. The US economy has recovered based on the spread between the the Euro and the Dollar. You could buy US products for less based on the exchange rate. If the Euro keeps falling and is equal to the Dollar, European markets will buy from home. This would crush our recovery efforts in the States. This uncertainty will put volatility back in play. Just a few days ago this problem was said to be behind us. When this is resolved, look for rates to rise.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Friday we will see four jobs reports that could move the markets.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2131-uncertainty-05-06.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2128-euro-05-05.html Wed, 05 May 2010 16:58:40 GMT *The Euro* 5/05/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this... The Euro
5/05/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this morning. Instability in foreign currency has caused the markets to plummet the last few trading sessions. Now there are riots in the streets of Athens. The economy is now a global economy. The US is dependent on the sales of our goods and services in all of Europe. The US economy has recovered based on the spread between the the Euro and the Dollar. You could buy US products for less based on the exchange rate. If the Euro keeps falling and is equal to the Dollar, European markets will buy from home. This would crush our recovery efforts in the States. This uncertainty will put volatility back in play. Just a few days ago this problem was said to be behind us. When this is resolved, look for rates to rise.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Friday we will see four jobs reports that could move the markets.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2128-euro-05-05.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2127-same-story-05-04.html Tue, 04 May 2010 16:37:55 GMT *Same Story* 5/04/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this... Same Story
5/04/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this morning. I am going to leave up yesterday's commentary. Nothing has changed our view moving forward.

We have stated over and over that rates in June are .375% higher than rates in January (they were at 5.00%). May historically has returned more stock market gains than any other month. The Fed has inferred that they may start selling MBS. The spring buying season is here and buyers will be out looking, no matter how high the rates. You will not see lower rates the rest of this month and next, than you will see this week. We will start to see the slow steady ascent of rates.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Frdiay we will see four jobs reposts that could move the markets.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2127-same-story-05-04.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2126-history-lesson-05-03.html Mon, 03 May 2010 15:08:41 GMT *History Lesson* 5/03/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 19bp... History Lesson
5/03/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 19bp this morning. We have stated over and over that rates in June are .375% higher than rates in January (they were at 5.00%). May historically has returned more stock market gains than any other month. The Fed has inferred that they may start selling MBS. The spring buying season is here and buyers will be out looking, no matter how high the rates. You will not see lower rates the rest of this month and next, than you will see this week.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: There are four auctions this week. Consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meeting results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Intial jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Friday brings us a look at GDP, Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Sentiment report.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2126-history-lesson-05-03.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2125-tame-04-30.html Mon, 03 May 2010 15:04:22 GMT Tame 4/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 15bp this morning.... Tame
4/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 15bp this morning. This mornings inflation reading was tame. This will allow the Fed to keep rates low for an extended period. GDP showed that the economy grew in the first quarter of this year. Consumer sentiment was slightly higher than expectations. The news weighing on the markets is Goldman Sachs being investigated. Goldman had been the media darling for the perfect company. We will wait to see how long it keeps Goldman down. It only took the American people a few months to forget Tiger Woods's indiscretions. Have a great weekend.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: There are four auctions this week. Consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meeting results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Intial jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Friday brings us a look at GDP, Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Sentiment report.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2125-tame-04-30.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2124-standing-pat-04-29.html Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:30:35 GMT *Standing Pat* 4/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this... Standing Pat
4/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. The FOMC released the minutes from their two day meeting and left their message unchanged. There has been no effect on interest rates. The markets are up today as unemployment was little changed. Looks like it will be another slow news cycle day. We will update if things change.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: There are four auctions this week. Consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meeting results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Intial jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Friday brings us a look at GDP, Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Sentiment report.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2124-standing-pat-04-29.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2122-waiting-fed-04-28.html Wed, 28 Apr 2010 14:35:06 GMT *Waiting on the Fed* 4/28/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... Waiting on the Fed
4/28/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 19bp this morning. Greece gets a larger aid package and the crisis is averted for now. The stock markets have rallied on the news. The markets will move sideways this morning. The FOMC will release a statement after their two day meeting concludes today at 1:15. The Fed has not changed the language of the release in quite some time. Their plans to sell MBS will be what we are watching. We will also get a look at the results of today's auction at noon. Spring brings higher rates and this may be the catalyst. We advise to lock ahead of the FOMC release. We know for certain they are not going to extend any programs. We can either stay status quo or go up. The risk out weighs the reward, lock now.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: There are four auctions this week. Consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meeting results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Intial jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Friday brings us a look at GDP, Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Sentiment report.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2122-waiting-fed-04-28.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2119-lacking-direction-04-26.html Mon, 26 Apr 2010 15:22:43 GMT *Lacking Direction* 4/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp... Lacking Direction
4/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this morning. There is no high impact news being released today. We do have the first of four auction results being released midday. We had better than expected earnings this morning and that pushed stocks higher at the open. The markets have since stalled and are in a holding pattern. With the recent run up in the stock market and the FOMC meeting Wednesday, we do not expect much movement in the markets. Members of the FOMC are releasing warning signs the Fed may start selling their MBS. That would put pressure on an already saturated market.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: There are four auctions this week. Consumer confidence will be released on Tuesday. The FOMC meeting results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Intial jobless claims will be released on Thursday. Friday brings us a look at GDP, Chicago PMI, and the University of Michigan Sentiment report.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2119-lacking-direction-04-26.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2118-supply-demand-02-23.html Fri, 23 Apr 2010 16:48:01 GMT *Supply and Demand* 4/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Supply and Demand
4/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bp this morning and that makes minus 50bps since yesterday. Greece is weighing less and the markets and investors are not seeking the safe haven of bonds. Durable goods orders were down and new home sales were up. With investors not buying bonds and there is a new supply next, we could see rates start to tick up. The Treasury is rumored to be thinking of selling some of their bonds. That could be released at a meeting next week. Have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Earnings and auctions are the only high impact data for this week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2118-supply-demand-02-23.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2117-earnings-04-21.html Wed, 21 Apr 2010 15:12:42 GMT *Earnings* 4/21/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 22bp this... Earnings
4/21/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 22bp this morning. Investors are focused on earnings with no other economic data being released. This will be the case for the remainder of the week. The only item that could effect the markets would be the announcement of the bond auction schedule for next week. The markets have been fairly subdued the last few days. We expect volatility to return in the near future. We advise our clients to lock.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Earnings and auctions are the only high impact data for this week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2117-earnings-04-21.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2116-no-news-04-20.html Tue, 20 Apr 2010 15:21:39 GMT *No News* 4/20/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this... No News
4/20/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. MBS started sliding yesterday afternoon and continue to slide today. We are down 40bp in the last 24 hours. Earnings continue to come in better than expected. There are six economic reports being released on Wednesday and Thursday. Individually these reports are not considered high impact, but if most of them come in better than expected, we could see a shift in rates. We continue to advise our clients to lock.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week: Earnings and auctions are the only high impact data for this week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2116-no-news-04-20.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2115-goldman-sachs-fraud-04-16.html Fri, 16 Apr 2010 21:16:23 GMT *Goldman Sachs Fraud* 4/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... Goldman Sachs Fraud
4/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 28bp this morning. The SEC is charging Goldman Sachs with fraud in relation to subprime mortgages. This news has sent investors running for the door and into the safe have of bonds. Consumer sentiment also came in weaker than analysts had expected. With no high impact news being released next week the markets will be watching earnings and the auctions. We are still advising our clients to lock. These rates will not last. Have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of high impact news being released next week: Earnings and auctions are the only high impact data for next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2115-goldman-sachs-fraud-04-16.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2114-higher-unemployment-04-15.html Thu, 15 Apr 2010 16:04:46 GMT *Higher Unemployment* 4/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... Higher Unemployment
4/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. Yesterday afternoon we saw a huge selloff in MBS. We are seeing a reversal here this morning as intial jobless claims were higher than expected. The stock markets are trying to digest the latest reading on manufacturing that was released this morning. We always talk to our clients about locking on the dips. This is a dip and a great time to lock. Earnings have beat expectations so far and if it continues, rates will continue to rise.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of high impact news being released next week: Earnings and auctions are the only high impact data for next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2114-higher-unemployment-04-15.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2112-ben-back-04-14.html Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:29:24 GMT *Ben is Back* 4/14/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this... Ben is Back
4/14/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is on Capitol Hill testifying in front of the Joint Economic Committee. The Chairman has not tested any uncharted water in any of his speeches in quite some time. We do not expect anything new this morning. JP Morgan had a great earnings release. Retail sales were reported higher and inflation is in check. The Fed's Beige Book will be released today. The Beige Book gives us an outlook of the US economy through the Fed's eyes. We are advising clients to lock!

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Earnings season kicks off Monday. Wednesday Retails Sales,CPI and the ADP jobs report will be released. The Philly Fed number will be released on Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2112-ben-back-04-14.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2111-earnings-miss-04-13.html Tue, 13 Apr 2010 16:46:20 GMT *Earnings Miss* 4/13/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this... Earnings Miss
4/13/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. Alcoa's earnings were short of analysts' expectations. That has caused a momentary sell off in the equity markets. This is an opportunity to lock at really good rates today. We do not anticipate this lasting very long. Lock today!!!!

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Earnings season kicks off Monday. Wednesday Retails Sales,CPI and the ADP jobs report will be released. The Philly Fed number will be released on Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2111-earnings-miss-04-13.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2110-next-up-alcoa-04-12.html Mon, 12 Apr 2010 15:00:22 GMT *Next Up: Alcoa* 4/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp... Next Up: Alcoa
4/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. Earnings season officially kicks off with Alcoa announcing earnings after the bell today. The Dow is over the 11,000 mark this morning. This would normally mean that we would have a pull back as investors digest the the rally. The bond markets have also seen some movement here this morning. I think we have investors positioning themselves for the earnings week ahead. No Fed to smooth out the rough spots could lean towards volatility.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Earnings season kicks off Monday. Wednesday Retails Sales,CPI and the ADP jobs report will be released. The Philly Fed number will be released on Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2110-next-up-alcoa-04-12.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2109-earnings-season-04-09.html Fri, 09 Apr 2010 15:31:21 GMT *Earnings Season* 4/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 3bp... Earnings Season
4/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 3bp this morning. Today should be a pretty uneventful day. Earnings season kicks off Monday. Traders should take it easy leading up to the first earnings report. If earnings are not up to par, we could see a major correction in the markets. However, if they are in line, rates will continue to climb. Have a great weekend!

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Earnings season kicks off Monday. Wednesday CPI and the ADP jobs report will be released. The Philly Fed number will be released on Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2109-earnings-season-04-09.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2108-mixed-data-04-08.html Thu, 08 Apr 2010 15:32:44 GMT *Mixed Data* 4/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this... Mixed Data
4/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. Rates are better today after a very strong auction yesterday and a late in the day MBS rally. Today we saw better than expected retail sales and worse than expected jobs numbers. Greece continues to be a sore spot. There are some in the FOMC that continue to say that the Fed should reduce its balance sheet. The would put severe pressure on the MBS market. This was a nice pull back in rates and I would consider locking here.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC will release the minutes from their last meeting on Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2108-mixed-data-04-08.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2106-its-rally-04-07.html Wed, 07 Apr 2010 15:38:40 GMT It's a Rally
4/7/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 12bp this morning. Two straight days of MBS gains and we are still over 100bp from where we started and rates have not budged. The Fed stated in the minutes released yesterday, that they will be cautious in raising rates not to derail the progress they have made by raising them too soon. The problem is the markets must play along with the Fed and purchase MBS. Auction results will be released today at noon. That could take back any progress we have made in the last 2 days.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC will release the minutes from their last meeting on Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2106-its-rally-04-07.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2105-bleeding-stops-04-06.html Tue, 06 Apr 2010 15:12:22 GMT *The Bleeding Stops* 4/6/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 16bp... The Bleeding Stops
4/6/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 16bp this morning. Three long days of heavy declines in the MBS market are reversed today. We have the FOMC minutes being released today and a large bond offering. The reversal could be short lived. Stocks are weaker this morning and Greece is having problems again with their debt. The Fed is talking about selling its 1.25 trillion dollars of MBS. Yesterday the 10 year Treasury was over 4.00% yield for the first time in over a year. There is more upward pressure on rates and they will continue to climb.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC will release the minutes from their last meeting on Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2105-bleeding-stops-04-06.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2103-day-2-another-50bp-loss.html Fri, 02 Apr 2010 15:00:54 GMT *Day 2: Another 50bp loss* 4/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Day 2: Another 50bp loss
4/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus another 50bp this morning. Day 2 of life without the Fed starts with the same results. MBS are currently down 50bp today after reaching an intraday low of 91bp. This after the government jobs report showed expansion. The bond markets close at 11:00 today in observance of Good Friday. Have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC will release the minutes from their last meeting on Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2103-day-2-another-50bp-loss.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2102-day-1-04-01.html Thu, 01 Apr 2010 15:35:28 GMT *Day 1* 4/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 50bp this... Day 1
4/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 50bp this morning. Day one of life without the Fed has started out a little bumpy. Jobless claims were slightly better and the ISM report showed there is expansion in manufacturing. The news has put Wall Street in a good mood and really hit the bonds hard. If we see any more pressure in the bonds, we will be raising rates another .125% for all programs. We have auctions next week and if they are anything like the last auctions we could be in for more trouble. We will also get to see the FOMC minutes from the last meeting on Tuesday. Everything is pointing to higher rates.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Monday Personal Consumption Expenditures report will be released. Wednesday we will see the ADP jobs report and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index that gives a look at manufacturing. Thursday the ISM Index which tracks national manufacturing will be released. Friday we have 4 job reports being released before the bell.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2102-day-1-04-01.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2101-data-weak-03-31.html Wed, 31 Mar 2010 15:46:27 GMT *Data Weak* 3/31/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this... Data Weak
3/31/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this morning. ADP employment numbers and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index are both lower than expected. Bond markets improved after the news. With the Fed exiting the MBS purchase program today there was no huge rally. Fed officials have started talking about the sale of their 1.25 trillion dollars of MBS. It will not happen over night, but it will start happening and that will make rates go up over time. The Fed had used its purchasing power to smooth out any rough spots in the MBS market. We have only seen a hand full of large moves over the last year. Volatility will return to the markets. The question is how soon.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Monday Personal Consumption Expenditures report will be released. Wednesday we will see the ADP jobs report and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index that gives a look at manufacturing. Thursday the ISM Index which tracks national manufacturing will be released. Friday we have 4 job reports being released before the bell.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2101-data-weak-03-31.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2100-confidence-higher-03-30.html Tue, 30 Mar 2010 15:11:53 GMT Confidence Higher 3/30/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 25bp... Confidence Higher
3/30/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 25bp this morning. Consumer confidence is better than analysts' expectations and is causing a small rally in stocks. The Fed has reduced the amount of MBS that they are purchasing and end the purchase program tomorrow. This has and will create volatility in the MBS market. Locking will be our stance for the near future as we evaluate how the the Fed exiting the MBS market will effect rates. There is an abundence of high impact news yet to be released this week.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Monday Personal Consumption Expenditures report will be released. Wednesday we will see the ADP jobs report and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index that gives a look at manufacturing. Thursday the ISM Index which tracks national manufacturing will be released. Friday we have 4 job reports being released before the bell.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2100-confidence-higher-03-30.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2097-sentiment-unchanged-03-25.html Fri, 26 Mar 2010 15:23:02 GMT *Sentiment Unchanged* 3/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... Sentiment Unchanged
3/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 22bp this morning. Consumer Sentiment was in line with analysts' expectations. Greece's debt fears seem to be easing. Today is a slow news day. We will be watching the stock market for direction. Next week there is plenty of news on tap. The Fed's MBS purchase program also ends. We will be watching rates very carefully. Have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: Monday Personal Consumption Expenditures report will be released. Wednesday we will see the ADP jobs report and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index that gives a look at manufacturing. Thursday the ISM Index which tracks national manufacturing will be released. Friday we have 4 job reports being released before the bell.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2097-sentiment-unchanged-03-25.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2096-look-kids-big-ben-again-03-25.html Thu, 25 Mar 2010 15:18:25 GMT *Look Kids, Big Ben... Again* 3/25/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Look Kids, Big Ben... Again
3/25/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. Yesterday afternoon MBS were down as many as 81bp. That has caused rates to start to climb here today. Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking in front of the House Financial Services Committee regarding the exit strategy for the Fed Emergency Liquidity Programs. The Chairman should stick to the script and we should expect no major revelation in his testimony.

We said yesterday that there was a sell off in the bonds because of the previous auction. Yesterday's auction did not fair well and we have another auction on tap for today. Buckle up, this could get bumpy.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There will be three auctions this week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2096-look-kids-big-ben-again-03-25.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2095-sell-off-03-24.html Wed, 24 Mar 2010 16:02:51 GMT *Sell Off* 3/24/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bp this... Sell Off
3/24/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bp this morning. We are seeing a sell off in bonds today. There has been no tangible reason for the sell off. I can only speculate that after a fair response to yesterday's auction that the 42 billion auction that is on tap for today is giving investors pause. It could also have to do with the time of year. Rates typically move higher going into the spring purchase season. No other high impact news is on tap for this week.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There will be three auctions this week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2095-sell-off-03-24.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2092-flat-03-23.html Tue, 23 Mar 2010 18:55:39 GMT *Flat* 3/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning.... Flat
3/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. Auction results will be released today at noon. The last few auctions have have had a favorable response. The House of Representatives Financial Services Committee is holding hearings to try and fix Fannie and Freddie. Economic data released today was inline with expectations. The Fed purchase program of MBS ends next week. The stock and bond markets are flat today.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There will be three auctions this week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2092-flat-03-23.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2091-no-high-impact-news-03-22.html Mon, 22 Mar 2010 15:11:53 GMT *No High Impact News* 3/22/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... No High Impact News
3/22/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. There is no high impact news being released this week. The Treasury will hold three auctions. Rates typically drift higher when there is no news to hold them down. I will update my commentary if warranted today.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There will be three auctions this week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2091-no-high-impact-news-03-22.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2090-witch-back-03-19.html Fri, 19 Mar 2010 18:00:22 GMT *The Witch is Back* 3/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp... The Witch is Back
3/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day. That means the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. With all of these contracts expiring it usually brings volatility to the market. That is something we have not seen in some time. The key will be not to panic at anything that you see or hear today and pick up on Monday. There is basketball on all day and it is supposed to be great weather. Get out and enjoy yourself. Have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2090-witch-back-03-19.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2087-march-madness-03-18.html Thu, 18 Mar 2010 15:09:58 GMT *March Madness????* 3/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp... March Madness????
3/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp this morning. Basketball has given the month of March "madness". That can not be said for the markets. This month has been one of the most tranquil in recent memory. The stock markets have slowly moved higher and rates have moved slightly lower. The high impact data that was released this morning was not high impact at all. One analyst compared the current state of the markets to the eye of a hurricane. The Fed's MBS purchase program ends at the end of this month. We will have to take a wait and see attitude.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2087-march-madness-03-18.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2086-look-kids-big-ben-again-03-17.html Wed, 17 Mar 2010 16:45:29 GMT *Look Kids Big Ben Again* 3/17/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Look Kids Big Ben Again
3/17/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. Ben Bernanke will be getting grilled in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 1:00 today. The Chairman's message will be that the Federal Reserve should stay an independent agency. The reports released today were generally in line with what analyst had expected. Thursday we have high impact news that could move the markets. Happy St. Patrick's Day.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI and the Philly Fed index will be released on Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2086-look-kids-big-ben-again-03-17.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2079-fomc-03-16.html Tue, 16 Mar 2010 15:21:23 GMT *FOMC* 3/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning.... FOMC
3/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. The FOMC holds a rare 1 day meeting. I wrote yesterday that the results would be released on Wednesday. The results will be released today at 1:15. The markets will be in a holding pattern until after the minutes are released. I would be prepared to lock.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI and the Philly Fed index will be released on Thursday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2079-fomc-03-16.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2074-now-up-ben-bernanke-bernanke-03-15.html Mon, 15 Mar 2010 14:58:59 GMT Now Up Ben Bernanke, Bernanke 3/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Now Up Ben Bernanke, Bernanke
3/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. All eyes will be on the Fed's meeting that starts on Tuesday. The minutes of that meeting will be released on Wednesday at 1:15. The latest batch of economic news is what analyst expected. There seems to be less doom and gloom in the markets. The same can not be said for the labor market as we have not seen any improvement in the unemployment rates. The Fed does not take unemployment into consideration when making its rate decisions. That means the Fed will have to start warning about future plans to move rates higher to protect against inflation. That will be an interest rate mover. Any hint of a change in language and March Madness may start Wednesday.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI and the Philly Fed index will be released on Thursday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2074-now-up-ben-bernanke-bernanke-03-15.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2070-jobless-claims-03-11.html Thu, 11 Mar 2010 16:05:18 GMT *Jobless Claims* 3/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp... Jobless Claims
3/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. Jobless claims were reported in line with expectations this morning. The markets are currently trading at mixed levels. Today is another slow news day. We will see the results of the 30 year note auction at noon. Traders will wait to see the retail numbers that will be released before the bell on Friday. It is possible we will not see much action before the Fed meets next week Tuesday. China released a higher than expected inflation number this morning and that might push the Fed to change its language. We have been, and continue to be, in a locking mode.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2070-jobless-claims-03-11.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2069-no-news-03-10.html Wed, 10 Mar 2010 17:51:05 GMT *No News* 3/10/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 22bp this... No News
3/10/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 22bp this morning. I have not been able to find any news that would move the markets today. We have auction results being released at noon today. The Fed starts their 2 day meeting next Tuesday. Thursday we have intial jobless claims, but they are not expected to move the markets. I will update the commentary if news breaks.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2069-no-news-03-10.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2068-more-money-03-09.html Tue, 09 Mar 2010 16:12:34 GMT *More Money* 3/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this... More Money
3/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. The Treasury will auction another 72 billion dollars in Treasury notes starting today with 40 billion in 3 year notes. Rates on some products open slightly better today. There was no real reason for the move. We will have to see how today's auction goes to see if the rates hold. Remember China started decreasing its exposure to US debt. Greece also had a large auction last week. Simple supply and demand economics will have to start working soon. The Fed meets next week.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2068-more-money-03-09.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2067-more-money-03-09.html Tue, 09 Mar 2010 16:11:01 GMT *More Money* 3/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this... More Money
3/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. The Treasury will auction another 72 billion dollars in Treasury notes starting today with 40 billion in 3 year notes. Rates on some products open slightly better today. There was no real reason for the move. We will have to see how today's auction goes to see if the rates hold. Remember China started decreasing its exposure to US debt. Greece also had a large auction last week. Simple supply and demand economics will have to start working soon. The Fed meets next week.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2067-more-money-03-09.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2066-unwinding-03-08.html Mon, 08 Mar 2010 16:03:04 GMT *Unwinding* 3/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 9bp this... Unwinding
3/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 9bp this morning. The Fed has said on numerous occasions that it will unwind the current MBS purchase plan at the end of this month. The information provided at the bottom of this page shows that historically, rates have move up ahead of the spring buying season. Rates over the last few months have stalled at 4.875% for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. The risk:reward for holding out for .125% better in rate is not a good risk in the current market. There is no high impact news being released until Friday. During periods when no high impact new is being released, rates typically trend higher. We are strongly advising our clients to lock.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2066-unwinding-03-08.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2065-jobs-jobs-jobs-03-05.html Fri, 05 Mar 2010 16:28:17 GMT *Jobs, Jobs, Jobs* 3/5/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 47bp... Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
3/5/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 47bp this morning. Job losses are fewer than expected. This has put the stock markets in a good mood this morning. The entire week seemed to be building toward this number. The bond markets are getting crushed. This could be the catalyst for the upward trend in rates. I have left the information up regarding the 6 year history of rates below. Remember to lock your loans and have a great weekend.

I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2065-jobs-jobs-jobs-03-05.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2064-history-lesson-03-04.html Thu, 04 Mar 2010 16:52:35 GMT *History Lesson* 3/4/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this... History Lesson
3/4/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.

The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.

In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2064-history-lesson-03-04.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2062-flat-03-03.html Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:25:01 GMT *Flat* 3/3/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning.... Flat
3/3/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. The Fed's Beige Book will be released and give us the minutes from their last meeting. ISM and the Challenger Jobs Report were no real big suprises. In the absences of real news, rates typically trend higher.

The last few weeks we have repeatedly said that rates will be going up. Rates recently were up .25% depending on the product you were choosing. We have seen rates settle back to their previous lows for the year. That usually leads to complacency. It took all of 24 hours for the rates to jump and over a week to come back down. We typically start to see rates move upward as the spring buying season approaches. It would take really bad news for rates to continue to slide past this layer of restistance. The reward for waiting might be .125%. The risk is, you may never see a rate this low again. We continue to advise clients to lock.

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2062-flat-03-03.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2061-you-going-wrong-way-03-02.html Tue, 02 Mar 2010 16:46:45 GMT *You are going the wrong way!* 3/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... You are going the wrong way!
3/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. Worries surrounding Greece are subsiding and this is causing bonds to retreat. I am hearing some early commentary regarding Friday's job numbers. Analysts are saying we should not read too much into the numbers because of the snow storms that pounded the nation. That probably means the numbers will be far worse than expected. We do not have much more in the way of news this week. Rates typically drift higher when there is an absence of news. I have left yesterday's commentary because I think it is important.

The last few weeks we have repeatedly said that rates will be going up. Rates recently were up .25% depending on the product you were choosing. We have seen rates settle back to their previous lows for the year. That usually leads to complacency. It took all of 24 hours for the rates to jump and over a week to come back down. We typically start to see rates move upward as the spring buying season approaches. It would take really bad news for rates to continue to slide past this layer of restistance. The reward for waiting might be .125%. The risk is, you may never see a rate this low again. We continue to advise clients to lock.

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2061-you-going-wrong-way-03-02.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2060-spring-air-03-01.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 16:36:04 GMT *Spring is in the Air* 3/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Spring is in the Air
3/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. The last few weeks we have repeatedly said that rates will be going up. Rates recently were up .25% depending on the product you were choosing. We have seen rates settle back to their previous lows for the year. That usually leads to complacency. It took all of 24 hours for the rates to jump and over a week to come back down. We typically start to see rates move upward as the spring buying season approaches. It would take really bad news for rates to continue to slide past this layer of restistance. The reward for waiting might be .125%. The risk is, you may never see a rate this low again. We continue to advise clients to lock.

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2060-spring-air-03-01.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2059-spring-air-03-01.html Mon, 01 Mar 2010 16:32:27 GMT *Spring is in the Air* 3/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Spring is in the Air
3/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. The last few weeks we have repeatedly said that rates will be going up. Rates recently were up .25% depending on the product you were choosing. We have seen rates settle back to their previous lows for the year. That usually leads to complacency. It took all of 24 hours for the rates to jump and over a week to come back down. We typically start to see rates move upward as the spring buying season approaches. It would take really bad news for rates to continue to slide past this layer of restistance. The reward for waiting might be .125%. The risk is, you may never see a rate this low again. We continue to advise clients to lock.

Here is a list of news being released this week: There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2059-spring-air-03-01.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2057-ben-helps-rates-02-26.html Fri, 26 Feb 2010 16:16:56 GMT *Ben Helps Rates* 2/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp... Ben Helps Rates
2/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this morning. Chairman Ben Bernanke finished his semi annual testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday. MBS and interest rates have moved in a favorable direction after his testimony. We have hit a layer of resistance at the current level. We would need to see some very bad news to break out of the current range. News released today show existing homes sales declined, along with consumer sentiment, and GDP. Chicago PMI was higher then expected. That is why we suggest locking at these levels. The Chairman also repeated that the FED has no problem exiting the MBS purchase program.

Here is a list of news being released next week: PCE and ISM will be released on Monday. There are four jobs reports that will be released on Friday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2057-ben-helps-rates-02-26.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2051-look-kids-big-ben-02-24.html Wed, 24 Feb 2010 17:07:09 GMT *Look Kids, Big Ben* 2/24/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Look Kids, Big Ben
2/24/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 3bp this morning. Chairman Ben Bernanke is on Capitol Hill this morning giving his semi annual testimony. The markets have cheered his remarks so far today. This is a 2 day event so we will see how markets continue to react. The results of the $42 billion 5 year auction will be released today at noon. Yesterday's results were better than what we expected. New home sales were a big disappointment this morning. Analysts expected 354,000 units and there were only 309,000 units sold. This will keep the Feds low interest policy in place for the near future. Mortgage application were down last week.

Here is a list of news being released this week: GDP will be released on Friday. There are four auctions scheduled for Monday - Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2051-look-kids-big-ben-02-24.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2050-lack-confidence-02-23.html Tue, 23 Feb 2010 16:09:53 GMT *Lack of Confidence* 2/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... Lack of Confidence
2/23/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 34bp this morning. Consumer Confidence came in at 46 and analysts expected the reading to be 55. The news caused the Dow to fall 100 points and MBS spiked. We are still waiting to see what the auction brings at noon today. We believe that the auction will be weak and cause MBS to reverse their course. We continue our stance with a bias towards locking.

Yesterday I saw the Governor of West Virginia, Joe Manchin, on CNBC. He said his state has a $545,000,000 rainy day fund built up. He said in West Virginia "we live within our means." Maybe he can teach Washington a few lessons while he is there today.

Here is a list of news being released this week: GDP will be released on Friday. There are four auctions scheduled for Monday - Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2050-lack-confidence-02-23.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2049-plenty-supply-02-22.html Mon, 22 Feb 2010 16:37:19 GMT *Plenty of Supply* 2/22/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp... Plenty of Supply
2/22/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. There is no high impact news being released until Friday. That means the markets will be focused on the auctions. There is an auction everyday this week except Friday. Last week the Chinese started selling off US debt. If they are sellers, and they previously were the largest holder of US debt, who are the buyers? The Europeans have their own problems with Greece. We believe this weeks auctions will show how difficult it will be moving forward to sell US debt. Today's auction is a non-event with only 8 billion being auctioned. Tune in Tuesday at noon, that is when it will start to get interesting. We continue to have a locking stance.

This morning I saw the Governor of West Virginia, Joe Manchin, on CNBC. He said his state has a 545,000,000 rainy day fund built up. He said in West Virginia "we live within our means." Maybe he can teach Washington a few lessons while he is there today.

Here is a list of news being released this week: GDP will be released on Friday. There are four auctions scheduled for Monday - Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2049-plenty-supply-02-22.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2047-rates-hammered-02-19.html Fri, 19 Feb 2010 16:17:26 GMT *Rates are Hammered* 2/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Rates are Hammered
2/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bp this morning. MBS were hammered all day yesterday and continue to get hammered today. We have been talking about the Chinese not buying our debt anymore and how that could effect MBS. The Chinese started reducing their US debt holdings last week. We have written about the MBS purchase program ending and its effects. The FED said in their last meeting that they are ending the program. We said that the US could not continue to print money without causing inflation and higher rates. The CPI number came in hot and showed inflationary trends. The FED reacted by raising the discount rate they charge banks for funds and shortened the lending period from the emergency 28 days to 24 hours. We have been in a locking stance for 2 weeks and continue to think rates will go higher.

Next week we have another abundance of Treasuries being auctioned. This will only exacerbate an already over heated market.

Here is a list of news being released next week: GDP will be released on Friday. There are four auctions scheduled for Monday - Thursday.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2047-rates-hammered-02-19.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2040-under-pressure-02-18.html Thu, 18 Feb 2010 16:24:35 GMT *Under Pressure* 2/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp... Under Pressure
2/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp this morning. MBS were down as much as 47bps yesterday afternoon. That pressure has caused rates to tighten. This morning Walmart disappointed with same store sales, PPI came in hot, and jobless claims were up 37,000. This has put the market on its heels. It is too early to tell how the markets will react. I am keeping one finger on the lock button all day. If this market turns, it could be a while before we see these low rates again. Our advice is to lock.

Update: 10:22AM MBS now minus 34bps. Rates will be going up .125% when the rate changes are released.

Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI will be released on Friday. There are no auctions scheduled.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2040-under-pressure-02-18.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2038-japan-02-17.html Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:54:49 GMT *Japan????* 2/17/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this... Japan????
2/17/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. Stock markets rallied Tuesday afternoon as the dollar weakened. Housing starts were better than expected this morning and building permits were down. China has started to sell US debt. Japan is currently the largest holder of our debt. It is a widely held opinion that China will continue to sell Treasuries. This could really put a damper on our auctions next week. The last two auctions of last week had poor showings. Rates will start to rise if the auction continue to perform poorly.

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday. Philly Fed will be released on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There are no auctions scheduled.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2038-japan-02-17.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2036-markets-rally-mode-02-16.html Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:16:38 GMT *Markets in Rally Mode* 2/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Markets in Rally Mode
2/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 3bp this morning. Empire State Manufacturing came in higher than expected. Greece did not implode over the the weekend. With no other news being released the natural reaction is to take the stock markets higher. The next release is Wednesday's FOMC minutes release. Nothing in that release should shock the markets. We believe we will see a rise in rates over the next few days.

Here is a list of news being released next week: FOMC minutes will be released Wednesday. Philly Fed will be released on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There are no auctions scheduled.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2036-markets-rally-mode-02-16.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2032-china-period-02-12.html Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:30:38 GMT *China Period* 2/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 28bp this... China Period
2/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 28bp this morning. China announced this morning that it raised the level of reserves banks must hold for the second time this year. This is an attempt to slow lending and inflation. We have said over and over we need China to purchase our debt. The last 2 auctions were not recieved very well. Next week the President will meet with the Dalai Lama. China has urged the President not to hold this meeting and said there will be repercussions. I know we can not allow China to dictate our President's schedule, but now is not the time to strain the relationship. We did not plan on taking China to the prom, but we are there, so we might as well dance.

President's Day is Monday so the markets are closed and we will not have an update. Have a Great Weekend.

The Fed continues to say that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Philly Fed will be released on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There are no auctions scheduled.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2032-china-period-02-12.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2031-auctions-disappoint-02-11.html Thu, 11 Feb 2010 17:15:45 GMT *Auctions Disappoint* 2/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Auctions Disappoint
2/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 9bp this morning. The bond markets turned negative yesterday afternoon after the poor auction results were released. We have more auction results at noon today. The retail sales numbers that were to be released today have been pushed to Friday. The weekly employment numbers were better. Rates have started to drift higher over the last few days. With no real data being released until next Thursday and Friday, rates may continue to move higher.

The Fed continues to say that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Retail sales will be released on Thursday. We have a total of $81 billion being auctioned next week. With the absence of any clear news, rates have drifted higher. Another catalyst for locking in now.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2031-auctions-disappoint-02-11.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2029-street-does-not-like-script.html Wed, 10 Feb 2010 17:39:31 GMT *Street Does Not Like Script* 2/10/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Street Does Not Like Script
2/10/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp this morning. The Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, was scheduled to give a speech today. The weather in Washington prevented him from making the speech. The text of the speech was released and Wall Street has not reacted kindly. Stocks were punished early after a nice run up yesterday. The disappointment in the stock markets has carried over to bonds. Normally, when the stock market does badly, the bonds rally and we see better rates. The markets as a whole did not like the context of the speech. Here is a quote from Marketwatch.com "Bernanke also signaled that the central bank is mulling an increase in its discount, or penalty bank lending rate. This rate was lowered during the financial crisis to give banks an incentive to borrow needed funds".

The Fed continues to say that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Retail sales will be released on Thursday. We have a total of $81 billion being auctioned next week. With the absence of any clear news, rates have drifted higher. Another catalyst for locking in now.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2029-street-does-not-like-script.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2027-bears-take-snow-day-02-09.html Tue, 09 Feb 2010 16:18:40 GMT *Bears Take a Snow Day* 2/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Bears Take a Snow Day
2/9/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. The Bulls are running here to start the day. The market are all solidly in positive territory. We have another bond auction today at noon. The bonds look to take a beating today. This could be the start of a multiple day bull rally. Wednesday Ben Bernanke will speak in front of the House Financial Services Committee about the Fed's stimulus and more specifically the MBS purchase plan. If the Chairman takes a hard line on ending the program, we will see a spike in rates. We are advising our clients to lock.

The Fed continues to say that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Retail sales will be released on Thursday. We have a total of $81 billion being auctioned next week. With the absence of any clear news, rates have drifted higher. Another catalyst for locking in now.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2027-bears-take-snow-day-02-09.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2026-superbowl-hangover-02-08.html Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:44:14 GMT *Superbowl Hangover* 2/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... Superbowl Hangover
2/8/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 15bp this morning. We have seen heavy buying in MBS for the last few days as the markets tanked. It should not be a suprise that we are moving in the opposite direction today. Economic news will be very light this week. Markets will be focusing on the Treasury auctions and Europe.

The Fed keeps warning that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Retail sales will be released on Thursday. We have a total of $81 billion being auctioned next week. With the absence of any clear news, rates have drifted higher. Another catalyst for locking in now.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2026-superbowl-hangover-02-08.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2025-stock-slide-pauses-02-05.html Fri, 05 Feb 2010 16:11:14 GMT *Stock Slide Pauses* 2/5/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp... Stock Slide Pauses
2/5/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. The stock markets had their worst one day loss since August. This caused a rush to the safe haven of bonds. The government released their job numbers and they were a little disappointing. The stock futures were firmly negative before the news and stocks actually opened positive. The European Central Bank will meet next Thursday to discuss the bailout of Greece. With these two dooms day events off the table stocks should make a turn and take rates up as well.

The Fed keeps warning that they plan on exiting the MBS purchase program in March. There has been no reason in the markets for them to continue the program. Pundits are predicting that with the removal of the Fed, we could see a .50% to 1.0% spike in rates. Now maybe the best time to lock for the near future. We are advising our clients to LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Retail sales will be released on Thursday. We have a total of $81 billion being auctioned next week. With the absence of any clear news, rates have drifted higher. Another catalyst for locking in now.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2025-stock-slide-pauses-02-05.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2024-you-guessed-jobs-02-04.html Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:23:56 GMT *You Guessed it, Jobs* 2/4/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus... You Guessed it, Jobs
2/4/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 38bp this morning. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected for last week. That means the markets are starting to price in a disappointing number for tomorrow's job reports. The bond markets are up big today as investors are looking for safe havens. The job reports would have to be dismal to get another good day for bonds and we have $81 billion being auctioned early next week. Today is probably the best day that we will see for rates for the next week. We are advising our clients LOCK.

Here is a list of news being released this week: Friday we have four government reports on the labor market.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.co ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2024-you-guessed-jobs-02-04.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2022-jobs-jobs-jobs-02-03.html Wed, 03 Feb 2010 17:42:29 GMT *Jobs, Jobs, Jobs* 2/3/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 19bp... Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
2/3/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 19bp this morning. The ADP and Challenger job reports were released and showed more contraction in the work force. This number was not surprising because of after-Christmas layoffs. The construction industry also contracted. We said in January that the bad weather and after-Christmas layoffs would result in more job losses. Friday's government report should confirm our analysis. The Treasury announced another 81 billion in new debt being auctioned next week. ISM also came in lower than expected.

We continue to hold a locking bias as there is more pressure for rates to go up rather than down.

Here is a list of news being released this week: Friday we have four government reports on the labor market.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2022-jobs-jobs-jobs-02-03.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2020-waiting-game-02-02.html Tue, 02 Feb 2010 17:36:57 GMT *Waiting Game* 2/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this... Waiting Game
2/2/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 6bp this morning. Pending home sales rose 1% in December and was in line with expectations. UPS doubles their profit in the last quarter. Next week's auction schedule will be released on Wednesday. We have not seen any major moves in either direction this week. We believe the markets will be focusing on the job reports being released Friday morning. We think the markets will trade sideways into those reports.

We continue to hold a locking bias as there is more pressure for rates to go up rather than down.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Wednesday we will get a look at the employment picture, when ADP releases its survey. Friday we have four government reports on the labor market. There are no auctions scheduled for next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2020-waiting-game-02-02.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2017-no-clear-direction-02-01.html Mon, 01 Feb 2010 16:58:56 GMT *No Clear Direction* 2/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus... No Clear Direction
2/1/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 28bp this morning. PCE was released and was in line with expectations and ISM was better than expected. Earnings will still be in focus this week. The Friday jobs number will be a big market mover. The dollar has been strengthening over the past 2 weeks helping bonds to their current levels. A reversal in the dollar will send stocks higher and take rates up as well.

We continue to hold a locking bias.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Wednesday we will get a look at the employment picture, when ADP releases its survey. Friday we have four government reports on the labor market. There are no auctions scheduled for next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2017-no-clear-direction-02-01.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2013-positive-reports-01-29.html Fri, 29 Jan 2010 16:53:46 GMT *Positive Reports* 1/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp... Positive Reports
1/29/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. GDP, PMI, Sentiment, Earnings and a confiramtion were all positives for the markets. I would have thought that the stock markets would have reponded a little more favorable to this news. I think investors are finally asking the sustainability question we have talked about. I am starting to hear more analysts talk about a correction. The markets were fickle the last two weeks, we will see if the good sentiment carries into next week. Have a Great Weekend!

We continue to hold a locking bias.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Monday Personnal Consumption and ISM Index will be released. Wednesday we will get a look at the employment picture, when ADP releases its survey. Friday we have four government reports on the labor market. There are no auctions scheduled for next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2013-positive-reports-01-29.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2003-big-news-day-01-27.html Wed, 27 Jan 2010 16:06:08 GMT *Big News Day* 1/27/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this... Big News Day
1/27/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. The FOMC ends their two day meeting with minutes being released at 1:15. The President gives his first State of the Union tonight. US home sales dropped in December. These factors have put the markets in a very nervous and cautious mood. This has been good news for the bond markets. We are currently at the bottom of our estimates for first quarter rates. We feel now would be a good time to lock. The State of Union, the FOMC minutes and the reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman will lift the markets. This will also put pressure on rates to rise.

Here is a list of news being released this week: Friday Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2003-big-news-day-01-27.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2002-fomc-focus-01-26.html Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:54:25 GMT *FOMC in Focus* 1/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 16bp... FOMC in Focus
1/26/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 16bp this morning. The FOMC starts their two day meeting today. The markets will be waiting to see if there is any change in policy that comes out of this meeting. I have not read anything that would suggest that it is even being considered. However, the Fed Chairman has been getting heat for leaving money too loose and possibly creating a new bubble. This may spark a change in language , but not not a change in policy. It could get interesting at 1:15 on Wednesday when the minutes are released.

The results of today's auction will be released around noon today. With the current situation in Japan, we should see foreign interest increase. We are currently at the low range of our 1st quarter forecast for rates. There is a higher probability that rates will move higher rather than lower.

Here is a list of news being released this week: The FOMC will hold their meeting this week. The minutes from that meeting will be released on Wednesday at 1:15. Friday Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/2002-fomc-focus-01-26.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1999-jitters-01-25.html Mon, 25 Jan 2010 16:52:20 GMT *Jitters* 1/25/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 9bp this... Jitters
1/25/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 9bp this morning. It was a widely held opinion that the Fed Chairman would be confirmed without much resistence. There are now talks that he may not get confirmed. This has caused a downward spiral in the stock markets and a pause in the bond markets. The feeling was the economy was on a slow and steady course toward recovery. The politicians want to punish the Fed Chairman for leading us down the wrong path originally. They want to bring in a new Fed Chairman because they think we are out of this mess. We have just hit the iceberg, the worst is yet to come.

We said a few weeks ago 1st quarter rates should stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We currently sit at 5.00%. We said the only factor that would change that outlook was lack of foreign interest in our debt. This week will have another round of auctions. We will be watching the auctions and interest rates closely.

Here is a list of news being released this week: The FOMC will hold their meeting this week. The minutes from that meeting will be released on Wednesday at 1:15. Friday Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1999-jitters-01-25.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1994-not-so-fast-01-21.html Thu, 21 Jan 2010 15:39:40 GMT *Not So Fast* 1/21/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this... Not So Fast
1/21/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. There will be no Mortgage Rate Commentary Friday. The Philly Fed, which tracks manufacturing in the region, came in a great deal lower than expected. This report is inline with the jobs report that said more people filed for unemployment last week. It is being reported that 1 out of every 6 Americans is unemployed or under employed. Not exactly the stellar picture Wall Street is painting.

The President will speak today on tightening regulations on large banks. Large banks paid the government a 30% return on their TARP investment. It is being reported they may impose more taxes on these same banks. The markets will not react well to more government involvement with the banks that have already paid a premium with TARP.

We said a few weeks ago 1st quarter rates should stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We currently sit at 5.00%. We said the only factor that would change that outlook was lack of foreign interest in our debt. Next week will have another round of auctions. We will be watching the auctions and interest rates closely.

Here is a list of news being released next week: Chicago PMI will be released on Friday. There are other reports next week but, none of these reports will out weigh the importance of earnings.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1994-not-so-fast-01-21.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1985-housing-sector-financial-sector-china-01-19.html Wed, 20 Jan 2010 17:29:34 GMT *Housing Sector, Financial Sector and China* 1/20/10 Mortgage Backed... Housing Sector, Financial Sector and China
1/20/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 22bp this morning. Housing starts were down in December. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley released disappointing numbers. It is widely expected that China will raise its benchmark rate .25 in order to slow growth. Here is an excerpt from a www.marketwatch.com report. "There are worries that there will be more restrictions on lending, so liquidity will likely tighten," said Amy Lin at Capital Securities in Shanghai. China was widely expected to lead the World out of a global recession. This would be a major blow to US exports. If China decides to stop lending to its own country, how long can we expect them to continue buying US debt?

We said a few weeks ago 1st quarter rates should stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We currently sit at 5.00%. We said the only factor that would change that outlook was lack of foreign interest in our debt. Next week will have another round of auctions. We will be watching the auctions and interest rates closely.

There will be no updated Mortgage Commentary on Friday January 22nd.

Here is a list of news being released this week: Thursday we will see Jobless claims and the Philly Fed Index. None of these reports will out weigh the importance of earnings.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1985-housing-sector-financial-sector-china-01-19.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1984-stock-markets-glass-full-01-19.html Tue, 19 Jan 2010 17:28:08 GMT *Stock Markets Glass Full* 1/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Stock Markets Glass Full
1/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 16bp this morning. Citi reported a 7.6 billion dollar loss in the last quarter. This was in line with analyst expectations. Citi also released what has been described as a report that a forensic accountant would have trouble following. Last week the numbers showed consumer confidence down, JP Morgan Chase's revenue was down and other key indicators showed weakness. Yet, we are still near 15 month highs. I have heard of the glass is half full, but this market is trading like it is full of happy juice. We need the markets to trade lower. This will put money into the safe haven of bonds and thus lowering rates. This is almost impossible with the stock markets discounting any bad news. We need to trade in the happy juice for a dose of reality.

Here is a list of news being released this week. Wednesday we will see PPI and Housing Starts. Thursday we will see Jobless claims and the Philly Fed Index. None of these reports will out weigh the importance of earnings.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1984-stock-markets-glass-full-01-19.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1965-consumer-confidences-wanes-01-15.html Fri, 15 Jan 2010 16:22:40 GMT *Consumer Confidences Wanes* 1/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Consumer Confidences Wanes
1/15/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 38bp this morning. The University of Michigan Sentiment Report was released this morning. The reading was lower than what analysts had expected. JP Morgan Chase released earnings and beat analyst's expectations. Revenue, however, was a billion less than what analysts had anticipated. Jamie Dimon, CEO, said that he was cautious moving forward. The stock has not responded well to the news. Jamie Dimon and JP Morgan Chase are considered the darlings of the Banking Sector. This miss on revenue by JP Morgan Chase may signal a bigger problem in the Sector as a whole. Late next week the other banks start reporting. We have hit a ceiling of resistance in MBS. We need the stock market to continue to fall to break out and get below 5.00% on a 30 year fixed. I have put our first quarter forecast back in at the bottom of the page for the weekend.

Here is a list of news being released next week. Wednesday we will see PPI and Housing Starts. Thursday we will see Jobless claims and the Philly Fed Index. None of these reports will out weigh the importance of earnings next week.

A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com








These are the views and opinions of Douglas Lenski, President of Wholesale Mortgage Services of Wisconsin. Douglas is a seasoned mortgage professional, and derives information from daily study of market trends, mortgage publications and other industry input.



The increase in job losses in December should bring a new fear. Most analysts were stating that employers were holding off firing employees because of the Holiday season. We still shed 85,000 more jobs than what analysts expected. With the Holidays over and earnings season approaching we will see the next wave of layoffs. UPS announced they will cut 1800 management jobs today.

We have talked about the next shoe to drop in commercial real estate. We believe that this will start to happen in the first and second quarter of this year. Retailers that were on the brink of bust in September and October realized if they could make it to the Holiday season they would be rewarded by 30% of their yearly sales. This would pay for many of the lean months at the beginning of the year. These same retailers will now look into the future and decide that enough is enough. With 10% unemployment ahead for most of 2010 and the prospect of inflation, it will be too much for their shattered nerves. This week Macy's announced that it will shutter 5 stores in the Midwest. This is just the tip of sword.

The commercial real estate sector was barely holding on at the end of the year. The retail sector is going to start to contract in the first quarter. This contraction will lead to more vacancies and eventual defaults in the commercial space.

The housing sector was also a sore spot over the last two weeks. New home sales and existing home sales both plummeted according to their last reports. With a harsh winter blanketing the country, these numbers will not get better this month.

Analysts are coming out and saying there is a probability of a 10-20% correction in the markets. This would make sense with the data we presented above. That would lead to an extension of the current MBS purchase program by the Fed. The Chairman knows that we have never come out of a recession without the housing market. That is why you have read recently that the Fed may have to extend the MBS purchase program. We feel these factors will lead to rates between 4.875% and 5.375% for the first quarter. This is no change from last years forecast. The only factor that would change the forecast would be lack of interest in our debt by foreign investors. ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1965-consumer-confidences-wanes-01-15.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1963-retail-sales-disappoint-01-14.html Thu, 14 Jan 2010 16:45:49 GMT *Retail Sales Disappoint* 1/14/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Retail Sales Disappoint
1/14/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 9bp this morning. Retail sales were down 0.3% in December. Initial jobless claims increased last week. These two disappointing numbers have contributed to a flat market in both stocks and bonds. The markets are waiting for the next batch of data to be released for direction. The last auction of the week happens today with results released at noon. Today's auction is 30 year bonds. The last few 30 year bond auctions have not had great responses. A poor showing will spike interest rates.

Here is a list of high impact news being released next week. CPI will be released on Friday. There is a robust schedule of auctions next week.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1963-retail-sales-disappoint-01-14.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1962-bulls-blindly-take-markets-up-01-13.html Thu, 14 Jan 2010 16:16:45 GMT *Bulls Blindly take Markets up* 1/13/10 Mortgage Backed Securities... Bulls Blindly take Markets up
1/13/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 25bp this morning. The Beige Book will released today. We also will have auction results released at noon. The stock markets are up again today. There is more talk of possible corrections in the stock market.

Here is a list of high impact news being released next week. Retail sales will be announced on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There is a robust schedule of auctions next week.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1962-bulls-blindly-take-markets-up-01-13.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1959-earnings-disappointment-01-12.html Tue, 12 Jan 2010 16:17:39 GMT *Earnings Disappointment* 1/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are... Earnings Disappointment
1/12/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 44bp this morning. Alcoa started earning season off with a thud. Electronic Arts, Chevron and Associated Bank all warned of weaker fourth quarter results. Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase, said yesterday that the commercial real state market is a train wreck. He also said he thinks it maybe bottoming out. Currently there are a record 6.5 unemployed people per job opening and job openings in November fell. Here is an excerpt from an article on marketwatch.com on small business sentiment and hiring:

Profits are down and few owners say now is a good time to expand. Sales are weak, and more firms are cutting prices than raising them. Inventories are still too high. Capital spending plans are on hold. More business are reducing jobs than are hiring. Credit conditions remain tight and the political climate is negative, according to 830 business owners who responded to the NFIB survey.

Nearly half the businesses responding were in retail and construction.

This information corroborates the information that we have in our first quarter report at the bottom of this page.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week. Retail sales will be announced on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There is a robust schedule of auctions this week.



http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hop...ses-2010-01-12

First Quarter Outlook
The increase in job losses in December should bring a new fear. Most analyst were stating that employers were holding off firing employees because of the Holiday season. We still shed 85,000 more jobs than what analysts expected. With the Holidays over and earnings season approaching we will see the next wave of layoffs. UPS announced they will cut 1800 management jobs today.

We have talked about the next shoe to drop in commercial real estate. We believe that this will start to happen in the first and second quarter of this year. Retailers that were on the brink of bust in September and October realized if they could make it to the Holiday season they would be rewarded by 30% of their yearly sales. This would pay for many of the lean months at the beginning of the year. These same retailers will now look into the future and decide that enough is enough. With 10% unemployment ahead for most of 2010 and the prospect of inflation, it will be too much for their shattered nerves. This week Macy's announced that it will shutter 5 stores in the Midwest. This is just the tip of sword.

The commercial real estate sector was barely holding on at the end of the year. The retail sector is going to start to contract in the first quarter. This contraction will lead to more vacancies and eventual defaults in the commercial space.

The housing sector was also a sore spot over the last two weeks. New home sales and existing home sales both plummeted according to their last reports. With a harsh winter blanketing the country, these numbers will not get better this month.

Analysts are coming out and saying there is a probability of a 10-20% correction in the markets. This would make sense with the data we presented above. That would lead to an extension of the current MBS purchase program by the Fed. The Chairman knows that we have never come out of a recession without the housing market. That is why you have read recently that the Fed may have to extend the MBS purchase program. We feel these factors will lead to rates between 4.875% and 5.375% for the first quarter. This is no change from last years forecast. The only factor that would change the forecast would be lack of interest in our debt by foreign investors.

Here is a list of high impact news being released next week. Retail sales will be announced on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There is a robust schedule of auctions next week.









www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1959-earnings-disappointment-01-12.html http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1957-earnings-season-01-11.html Mon, 11 Jan 2010 17:27:18 GMT *Earnings Season* 1/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp... Earnings Season
1/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. Associated Bank of Green Bay released an earnings warning. The regional bank stated that it will lose $1.26 per share in the Fourth Quarter. Here is an excerpt from the release "During the quarter, deterioration of the commercial real estate portfolio followed trend in the sector including elevated vacancy rates and borrower bankruptcies and downward pressure on real estate values. The current macroeconomic environment continues to put pressure on other business sectors represented in our portfolio, but not to the degree seen in the commercial real estate sector." This follows the information that we released on the bottom of this page. That information will be available until my next post.

The results of today's auction should be released around noon today. After the bell Alcoa will officially kick off earnings season. This could be a bumpy ride this week.

Here is a list of high impact news being released this week. Retail sales will be announced on Thursday. CPI will be released on Friday. There is a robust schedule of auctions this week.

www.mortgageserviceswi.com ]]> dlenski http://www.thebubbler.com/forums/blogs/dlenski/1957-earnings-season-01-11.html