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The Witch is Back - 03/19
Posted 03-19-2010 at 02:00 PM by dlenski
The Witch is Back
3/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day. That means the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. With all of these contracts expiring it usually brings volatility to the market. That is something we have not seen in some time. The key will be not to panic at anything that you see or hear today and pick up on Monday. There is basketball on all day and it is supposed to be great weather. Get out and enjoy yourself. Have a great weekend.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
3/19/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 3bp this morning. Today is Quadruple Witching day. That means the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire. With all of these contracts expiring it usually brings volatility to the market. That is something we have not seen in some time. The key will be not to panic at anything that you see or hear today and pick up on Monday. There is basketball on all day and it is supposed to be great weather. Get out and enjoy yourself. Have a great weekend.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
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