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March Madness???? - 03/18
Posted 03-18-2010 at 11:09 AM by dlenski
March Madness????
3/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp this morning. Basketball has given the month of March "madness". That can not be said for the markets. This month has been one of the most tranquil in recent memory. The stock markets have slowly moved higher and rates have moved slightly lower. The high impact data that was released this morning was not high impact at all. One analyst compared the current state of the markets to the eye of a hurricane. The Fed's MBS purchase program ends at the end of this month. We will have to take a wait and see attitude.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
3/18/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 0bp this morning. Basketball has given the month of March "madness". That can not be said for the markets. This month has been one of the most tranquil in recent memory. The stock markets have slowly moved higher and rates have moved slightly lower. The high impact data that was released this morning was not high impact at all. One analyst compared the current state of the markets to the eye of a hurricane. The Fed's MBS purchase program ends at the end of this month. We will have to take a wait and see attitude.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released next week: There will be three auctions next week. There is no other high impact data.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
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