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Fomc - 03/16
Posted 03-16-2010 at 11:21 AM by dlenski
FOMC
3/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. The FOMC holds a rare 1 day meeting. I wrote yesterday that the results would be released on Wednesday. The results will be released today at 1:15. The markets will be in a holding pattern until after the minutes are released. I would be prepared to lock.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI and the Philly Fed index will be released on Thursday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
3/16/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are plus 6bp this morning. The FOMC holds a rare 1 day meeting. I wrote yesterday that the results would be released on Wednesday. The results will be released today at 1:15. The markets will be in a holding pattern until after the minutes are released. I would be prepared to lock.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released this week: CPI and the Philly Fed index will be released on Thursday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
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