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Jobless Claims - 03/11
Posted 03-11-2010 at 11:05 AM by dlenski
Jobless Claims
3/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. Jobless claims were reported in line with expectations this morning. The markets are currently trading at mixed levels. Today is another slow news day. We will see the results of the 30 year note auction at noon. Traders will wait to see the retail numbers that will be released before the bell on Friday. It is possible we will not see much action before the Fed meets next week Tuesday. China released a higher than expected inflation number this morning and that might push the Fed to change its language. We have been, and continue to be, in a locking mode.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
3/11/10 Mortgage Backed Securities are minus 12bp this morning. Jobless claims were reported in line with expectations this morning. The markets are currently trading at mixed levels. Today is another slow news day. We will see the results of the 30 year note auction at noon. Traders will wait to see the retail numbers that will be released before the bell on Friday. It is possible we will not see much action before the Fed meets next week Tuesday. China released a higher than expected inflation number this morning and that might push the Fed to change its language. We have been, and continue to be, in a locking mode.
I have listed the average monthly rate for the 30 year fixed rate mortgage for the last 6 years. You will see that rates typically move up between .375% and .50% from January to June. We have not seen much movement from rates so far this year. You can check our past commentary and see that our first quarter projection was for rates to stay between 4.875% and 5.375%. We have actually been at the low end of that range. We feel the rest of this quarter we could be at the higher end of that range. Next quarter we think rates are going to push past 5.375%.
The average rate for January was 5.03%. History tells us that the rate in June should be .375% to .50% higher or 5.40% to 5.53%. There is more upward pressure on rates than downward. You may not have to lock today, but you should soon.
In 2009 Jan 5.05 June 5.42 2008 Jan 5.76 June 6.32 2007 Jan 6.22 June 6.66 2006 Jan 6.15 June 6.68 2005 5.71 June 5.58 2004 Jan 5.71 June 6.29
Here is a list of news being released this week: Retail sales will be released on Friday. The Fed also starts their 2 day meeting Tuesday of next week.
A 35bp move usually represents a change in interest rates of .125% in either direction. Rates typically move up twice as fast as they move down.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
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