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A Great Deal of Pomp and No Substance - 08/28
Posted 08-28-2009 at 10:33 AM by dlenski
A Great Deal of Pomp and No Substance
8/28/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are - 3bp this morning. I have watched and read analysts opinions all this week. They keep talking about how high the markets are going to go when they rally. This week we have seen a very tight range of trading in all markets. I think they may be full of hot air. We have a very event packed week to start September. The picture moving forward I think will be painted by next Friday.
Here is a list of high impact data being released: Monday Chicago PMI, Tuesday the ISM report, Wednesday FOMC minutes and ADP National employment report, Friday has 4 employment reports. Buckle up as next week will be a wild ride.
Have a Great Weekend.
Here are a couple of things I have seen and read. First, www.minyanville.com and John Mauldin "Look at it this way. We’ve dug ourselves into a 12-foot hole over the past 2 years. The data now suggests that we’ve stopped digging, which is always a good idea if you’re in a hole. At some point we’ll have figured out how to add some dirt to the bottom to get us back up to an 8-foot hole. Will we be better off statistically? Absolutely. But we’ll still be in a hole."
The second was from CNBC this week when a contributor said that he was short the markets. He said that the fundamentals told him to short the markets. He changed his postion and is now buying thinking markets are going up in the short term. He is like a pig being lead to slaughter. His defense was you can not make money shorting when the stock market is going up(true). That sort of thinking is what caused every bubble that has burst. When the technicals say get out, but the greed says stay in.
We hold to our belief that the 30 year fixed will be in the 4.875% to 5.375% range until at least Fall.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
8/28/09 Mortgage Backed Securities are - 3bp this morning. I have watched and read analysts opinions all this week. They keep talking about how high the markets are going to go when they rally. This week we have seen a very tight range of trading in all markets. I think they may be full of hot air. We have a very event packed week to start September. The picture moving forward I think will be painted by next Friday.
Here is a list of high impact data being released: Monday Chicago PMI, Tuesday the ISM report, Wednesday FOMC minutes and ADP National employment report, Friday has 4 employment reports. Buckle up as next week will be a wild ride.
Have a Great Weekend.
Here are a couple of things I have seen and read. First, www.minyanville.com and John Mauldin "Look at it this way. We’ve dug ourselves into a 12-foot hole over the past 2 years. The data now suggests that we’ve stopped digging, which is always a good idea if you’re in a hole. At some point we’ll have figured out how to add some dirt to the bottom to get us back up to an 8-foot hole. Will we be better off statistically? Absolutely. But we’ll still be in a hole."
The second was from CNBC this week when a contributor said that he was short the markets. He said that the fundamentals told him to short the markets. He changed his postion and is now buying thinking markets are going up in the short term. He is like a pig being lead to slaughter. His defense was you can not make money shorting when the stock market is going up(true). That sort of thinking is what caused every bubble that has burst. When the technicals say get out, but the greed says stay in.
We hold to our belief that the 30 year fixed will be in the 4.875% to 5.375% range until at least Fall.
www.mortgageserviceswi.com
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