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Mortgage Market update 02/05 -Total System Failure

Posted 02-05-2009 at 11:36 AM by dlenski

Total system failure.
2/4/2009 Sorry for no updates. I have had to replace my networking system. We are trying to catch up today. I will post again starting Thursday.

1/30/09 The Fed has bought the following mortgage notes in January. They bought 23 billion the 8th-14th, 19 billion 15-21st and 16.836 billion the 22nd-28th. The following is just Fannie Mae notes. The first purchase was 3.35 billion in 4% notes and $0 in 5.5% notes. The second purchase was 700 million in 4% notes and 5.8 billion in 5.5% notes and a split of 3.6 billion on the 4.5% and 5.0% notes. This last purchase was $0 in 4% notes, 200 million 4.5% notes, 1.134 billion 5.0% notes and 4.705 billion on 5.5% notes. That is the research.

Here is the conclusion. The Fed started buying securities at 4% to drive interest rates down and they were successful. Then they said they would keep interest rates low on January 13th. They have decreased the amount of MBS they are purchasing since. They have changed the denominations they were purchasing from 4.0% to 5.5% notes. With that change in purchase patterns has come higher rates.

It does not appear the Fed is driving towards the mythical 4.5%. It appears they may have turned this bus around. Take advantage of the dips when available.

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